USDJPY Breaks Above 18-day High

• gregmikefx
• June 28th, 2011

We have been talking about this… The $USDJPY has broken above the 80.94 level and also above the 18 day high at 81.05. The high for the month at the 81.55. If the price cannot extend above the 81.55 in the next 3 days of trading the range for the month will the most narrow since May 1988 when the range for the month was a mere 155 pips.

The 50% of the move up from the March low to the April high comes in at 80.96. A move above this level and then the 81.05 level should open the door for additional gains for the pair.

The $USDJPY has a high of 81.05 and a low of 79.69 since June 6th. The month range of 186 pips (so far) is the narrowest trading range for a calendar month since May 1988 (155 pips). The non trending nature of the range suggests a trend move is more likely soon.

Needless to say, the month of June still has 3 days to go. As a result, be aware that the pair still has room to extend the range for the month. The longer the market non-trends the greater the chance for a trend move. So be aware. Look for momentum on a break. A target level on a break would be the 100 day MA which is currently at the 81.78 level. The $USDJPY has not closed above the 100 day MA since April 15th 2011 (blue line in the chart above). The market tested this MA on 3 separate occasions in May, but each found sellers against the level.

Non trending leads to trending. Staying above the 80.94 level keeps the bias to the upside. The upside targets the 81.55 level, then the 100 day MA at 81.77 the 200 day MA at the 82.22 level and 82.52.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

Tickers: USDJPY

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