Predictions for 2010

kevinmhughes

We’ve completed another year in the 21st century and we’re about to begin another decade.  2009 was a memorable year stemming from the last quarter of 2008.  The 2000′s changed me personally and professionally; I’ve lived many of life’s chapters from graduating college, ALMOST getting married all the way to starting my own business.  We’ve seen another attack on US soil where the heroes of that day are still being (and always should be) honored, we’ve seen the government learn about accounting and life as we know is operated from our blackberries (and if you’re an artsie fartsie type of person, your iPhone).  2009 was the year where the automakers were devising plans to bring back the Model ‘T’ because that’s all they were able to afford, until an Illinois liberal came along and decided the Ford Festiva should be back in production.  2009 was the year where we saw the country go from center to radical left to now showing signs of going back to center (if not all the way right).  And 2009 was the year where we saw the real financial wizards come to the fore front and denounce the likings of Jim Cramer of CNBC and show the American public that there isn’t only 3 experts in the world of finance (yes I’m talking about you StockTwits).

Here are my predictions for 2010:

- the $USD will run higher for the first 2 quarters then retrace most of its gains by the end of the year to end flat to slightly up.

- the Dow does what the Dow does and we’ll see 11,000 hold by years end (after a 15 – 20% ‘correction’)

- the S&P runs and holds 1100

- the $EUR & $GBP currencies plummet in the beginning of $TwentyTen and rally towards the end of $TwentyTen

- US Economy recovers very nicely and not due to jobs being created, people get sick of hearing everyone blame everyone else and they decide to start their own business or grab the bull by the horns

- Doug Estadt is forced to wear a Boston Red Sox Jersey on his show b/c he loses a bet to Todd Sullivan

- President Obama realizes that he made a mistake with forcing Universal Healthcare through congress and blames George W. Bush

- Japan ends up holding most of the rich people of the worlds debt due to the popularity of the carry trade

- Chinese currency starts to float and plummets to some scary lows for the foreseeable future (just like the $EURUSD did when it first came out)

- $GS buys $C and begins to man handle the financial system and loans the government money at 12% interest (wait, that may be happening now)

- Charlotte, NC realizes that the banks shouldn’t be 25% of GDP for NC & decides they’re going to become the largest ‘green’ city (or hub to the ‘green’ corporations)

- Al Gore has a nervous breakdown because his global warming initiative is a complete failure, he then reverts back to the claim of starting the internet and wins a Noble Prize

- Trader Tax doesn’t pass through congress and Brian Shannon can continue trading equities and avoid becoming an FX trader

- Tim Giethner………..  Well, what can I say, he FINALLY comes to the realization that he is just a puppet and he knows nothing about the economy of money; has a nervous breakdown and begins crying at one of his congressional testimonies (on national TV)

- $BAC still holds a top role in the financial industry under Moynihan and they purchase Fifth Third Bank…  (I still hate $BAC)

- M&A starts out slow, but ramps up & runs a muck in the 3rd quarter

- Bloomberg (being the smartest of the main stream financial media) dives head first into the talent pool of StockTwits & plucks out new contributers, which in part, will send their ratings through the roof sending CNBC rating through the floor making most of the talented talent of CNBC move to Bloomberg…  Eric Bolling realizes Fox never had a business channel and tries to move to Bloomberg regardless of contract

- in an attempt to show the world that trading has become so streamlined and they’re an innovator in technology, the CME Group moves their operations to Tom Grisafi‘s basement

- Commodities outperform everything (every commodity)

- The middle east breaks into an all out war that lasts for decades sending oil to +$130…  Saudi Arabia in an attempt to secure its borders, buys Pakistan & Isreal while Blackwater is hired for consulting

- Dale Earnhardt Jr. is awarded ‘Marketer of the Year’ and as a gift to himself he learns how to drive a stock car

- NY Giants make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs (no further than that)

- Tom Brady comes out of the closet

- US imports surge to all time highs, exposing the $USD to more international debt (hence why I believe the $USD will fall @ the end of 2010)

- the University of Michigan buys the city of Detroit for $25,000 and turns it into a play ground for its students

- Notre Dame actually has a winning record then loses the bowl game they are invited too

- President Obama signs a contract with Paramount Studios to become the highest paid actor (for when he’s done with his presidency)

- Correlations between the Equity, FX & commodity mkts are busted, each class has a mind of its own

Happy New Year everyone!!!


The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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