Any Given Thursday…

• ragheehorner
• February 4th, 2010

With a week like this…there’s hardly a typical day but that’s the way I have to prep for each day.  Look for the set ups, know the data releases, keep an eye on volatility, and ofcourse my market cycles.  While the goal for each day is the same, how I’m going to get there can vary in a big way.  What I wanted to do this morning is share the set up charts I am looking at for and some of thinking behind the potential trades…

The U.S. Dollar Index ($USDX) has definitely resumed the mark up cycle across the intraday charts I watch.  The daily never really wavered from the uptrend.   Here’s a view of the 60 minute chart with my Wave overlay.

(by the way the other moving averages on the chart, other than the Wave are my Lazy Days Lines which are just other Fibo-based EMAs I watch for support and resistance)

The daily is coming up on some significant daily highs.

The $USDX probably the most important chart I look at each day and that’s where I start.  So let’s see what the morning is going to bring.

I’ll probably sit tight during the 8:30am EST releases and see what shapes up after the dust settles:

(ForexFactory.com)

Since the data could create a high amount of pip movement, “proximity” is an issue for me.  In other words, I have to be aware that the spikes higher and/or lower could trigger trades and stop them out just as quick if the entries are too close to current price action as the data release nears.

The 30 and 60 minute $EURUSD are in mark down according to my Wave and the corrections could trigger a swing short at 1.3863 and 1.3883, respectively.

The $USDCHF has a swing buy set up on the 30 and 60 minute charts at 1.0605 and 1.0596 so there will be a lot of reliance on support at the 1.0600 major psychological level.

I’m also watching the $AUDUSD as the 60 and 240 minute charts head lower.  There’s a ton of support that can be seen on the 60 minute chart and this is going to limit my potential downside follow-through as I am never going to assume lower lows. So what I need is a higher bounce and that means keeping an eye on the 240 minute set up.

The problem with swings is that they require prices to “come back to the entry” and this type of corrective entry can be touch to wait for as prices make higher highs or lower lows.  Unless I get some accumulation cycles on the shorter term 15 minute chart to play momentum breakouts and breakdowns from, I’m probably going to have to just sit tight and wait.  That’s also going to likely be the attitude of the market in general as no one wants to be the “tall poppy” in front of tomorrow’s NFP.

The alternative is to trade the 5 minute charts which is likely what I will do between now and 7:30am/8:00am EST tomorrow.  That means I will be scanning all the pairs I trade looking for mark ups or mark downs to set up for intraday swings.

– Raghee

Tickers: $EURUSD, $USDCHF, $USDX, AUDUSD

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